Accumulation of non-traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease is associated with incident coronary heart disease hospitalization and death

Assessing multiple traditional risk factors improves prediction for late-life diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD). It appears that non-traditional risk factors can also predict risk. The objective was to investigate contributions of non-traditional risk factors to coronary heart disease risk using a deficit accumulation approach.Community-dwelling adults with no known history of CHD (n = 2195, mean age 46.9±18.7 years, 51.8% women) participated in the 1995 Nova Scotia Health Survey. Three risk factor indices were constructed to quantify the proportion of deficits present in individuals: 1) a 17-item Non-Traditional Risk Factor Index (e.g. sinusitis, arthritis); 2) a 9-item Traditional Risk Factor Index (e.g. hypertension, diabetes); and 3) a frailty index (25 items combined from the other two index measures). Ten-year risks of CHD events (defined as CHD-related hospitalization and CHD-related mortality) were evaluated.The Non-Traditional Risk Factor Index, made up of health deficits unrelated to CHD, was independently associated with incident CHD events over 10 years after controlling for age, sex, and the Traditional Risk Factor Index [adjusted {adj.} Hazard Ratio {HR} = 1.31; Confidence Interval {CI} 1.14-1.51]. When all health deficits, both those related and unrelated to CHD, were included in a frailty index the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio was 1.61; CI 1.40-1.85.Both traditional and non-traditional risk factor indices are independently associated with incident CHD events. CHD risk assessment may benefit from consideration of general health information as well as from traditional risk factors.Lindsay M. K. Wallace, Olga Theou, Susan A. Kirkland, Michael R. H. Rockwood, Karina W. Davidson, Daichi Shimbo, Kenneth Rockwoo

Changes in the severity and lethality of age-related health deficit accumulation in the USA between 1999 and 2018: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: With an ageing population, the number of people with frailty is increasing. Despite this trend, the extent to which the severity and lethality of frailty have changed over time is not well understood. We aimed to investigate how frailty severity and lethality have changed over an 18-year period in the USA. METHODS: In this population-based observational study, we used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to identify community-dwelling individuals (aged ≥20 years) in the USA between 1999 and 2018. We analysed data from a series of ten 2-year, nationally representative, cross-sectional, prospective studies (from 1999–2000 to 2017–18) from the NHANES. Frailty was measured by use of the deficit accumulation approach (ie, a 46-item frailty index). The proportion of individuals categorised as non-frail, or living with very mild frailty, mild frailty, moderate frailty, and severe frailty were compared across cohorts. Random-effects models were used to examine the association between frailty index score and sex, age, and cohort. Mortality status as of Dec 31, 2015, was ascertained by use of National Death Index data, and 5-year mortality was available in the first six cohorts (1999–2010). Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the association between frailty index scores and mortality. FINDINGS: In total, 49 004 individuals were included in our study. Associations were mainly non-linear (quadratic), with frailty increasing at a faster rate in more recent cohorts. Between 1999 and 2018, the proportion of non-frail individuals decreased by 10·4% (from 2747 [63·8%; 95% CI 61·9–65·6] of 4307 to 2884 [53·4%; 51·3–55·5] of 5399), whereas the proportion of individuals with very mild frailty increased by 2·4% (from 987 [22·9%; 21·3–24·6] to 1365 [25·3%; 23·5–27·2]), by 2·7% (from 370 [8·6%; 7·7–9·6] to 609 [11·3%; 10·1–12·5]) in those with mild frailty, by 3·1% (from 140 [3·3%; 2·7–3·9] to 347 [6·4%; 5·6–7·4]) in those with moderate frailty, and by 2·1% (from 63 [1·5%; 1·1–1·9] to 195 [3·6%; 3·0–4·3]) in those with severe frailty. Being a woman, older, and from a more recent cohort were associated with higher frailty index scores (all p<0·0001). In more recent cohorts, mean frailty index scores increased more quickly with age (p<0·0001), and sex differences in mean frailty index scores decreased (p<0·0001). In men of all ages and in women aged 35 years or older, mean frailty index scores were higher in more recent cohorts, with larger increases in frailty in older age groups. In 28 692 individuals from the first six cohorts (1999–2000 to 2009–10) with linked mortality data, frailty index scores were significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1·053 [95% CI 1·050–1·057] per 0·01 increase in frailty index score). The absence of an interaction between cohort and frailty index score (p=0·58) suggested that the association between frailty and mortality was similar for all cohorts. INTERPRETATION: Increasing frailty levels in more recent cohorts of middle-aged and older adults combined with stable frailty lethality between 1999 and 2018, suggest a challenge to healthy longevity, with the proportion of individuals with a high degree of frailty continuing to increase. FUNDING: Supported in part by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research

Satellite inferred surface albedo over northwestern Africa

November 1976.Includes bibliographical references (pages 55-56).Sponsored by the Global Atmospheric Research Program, National Science Foundation and the GATE Project Office, NOAA OCD-74-21678.Sponsored by the Global Atmospheric Research Program, National Science Foundation and the GATE Project Office, NOAA OCD-72-01681 A03

Social Vulnerability, Frailty and Mortality in Elderly People

BACKGROUND:Social vulnerability is related to the health of elderly people, but its measurement and relationship to frailty are controversial. The aims of the present study were to operationalize social vulnerability according to a deficit accumulation approach, to compare social vulnerability and frailty, and to study social vulnerability in relation to mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This is a secondary analysis of community-dwelling elderly people in two cohort studies, the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA, 1996/7-2001/2; N = 3707) and the National Population Health Survey (NPHS, 1994-2002; N = 2648). Social vulnerability index measures that used self-reported items (23 in NPHS, 40 in CSHA) were constructed. Each measure ranges from 0 (no vulnerability) to 1 (maximum vulnerability). The primary outcome measure was mortality over five (CHSA) or eight (NPHS) years. Associations with age, sex, and frailty (as measured by an analogously constructed frailty index) were also studied. All individuals had some degree of social vulnerability. Women had higher social vulnerability than men, and vulnerability increased with age. Frailty and social vulnerability were moderately correlated. Adjusting for age, sex, and frailty, each additional social 'deficit' was associated with an increased odds of mortality (5 years in CSHA, odds ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.07; 8 years in the NPHS, odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.14). We identified a meaningful survival gradient across quartiles of social vulnerability, and although women had better survival than men, survival for women with high social vulnerability was equivalent to that of men with low vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS:Social vulnerability is reproducibly related to individual frailty/fitness, but distinct from it. Greater social vulnerability is associated with mortality in older adults. Further study on the measurement and operationalization of social vulnerability, and of its relationships to other important health outcomes, is warranted

Piloting data linkage in a prospective cohort study of a GP referral scheme to avoid unnecessary emergency department conveyance

BACKGROUND: UK Ambulance services are under pressure to safely stream appropriate patients away from the Emergency Department (ED). Even so, there has been little evaluation of patient outcomes. We investigated differences between patients who are conveyed directly to ED after calling 999 and those referred by an ambulance crew to a novel GP referral scheme. METHODS: This was a prospective study comparing patients from two cohorts, one conveyed directly to the ED (n = 4219) and the other referred to a GP by the on-scene paramedic (n = 321). To compare differences in patient outcomes, we include follow-up data of a smaller subset of each cohort (up to n = 150 in each) including hospital admission, history of long-term illness, previous ED attendance, length of stay, hospital investigations, internal transfers, 30-day re-admission and 10-month mortality. RESULTS: Older individuals, females, and those with minor incidents were more likely to be referred to a GP than conveyed directly to ED. Of those patients referred to the GP, only 22.4% presented at ED within 30 days. These patients were more likely to be admitted then than were those initially conveyed directly to ED (59% vs 31%). Those conveyed to ED had a higher risk of death compared to those who were referred to the GP (HR: 2.59; 95% CI 1.14–5.89), however when analyses were restricted to those who presented at ED within 30 days, there was no difference in mortality risk (HR: 1.45; 95% CI 0.58–3.65). CONCLUSIONS: Despite limited data and a small sample size, there were differences between patients conveyed directly to ED and those who were referred into GP care. Initial evidence suggests that referring individuals to a GP may provide an appropriate and safe alternative path of care. This pilot study demonstrated a need for larger scale, methodologically rigorous study to demonstrate the benefits of alternative conveyance schemes and recommend changes to the current system of urgent and emergency care

A standard procedure for creating a frailty index

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Frailty can be measured in relation to the accumulation of deficits using a frailty index. A frailty index can be developed from most ageing databases. Our objective is to systematically describe a standard procedure for constructing a frailty index.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a secondary analysis of the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study, based in New Haven CT. Non-disabled people aged 70 years or older (n = 754) were enrolled and re-contacted every 18 months. The database includes variables on function, cognition, co-morbidity, health attitudes and practices and physical performance measures. Data came from the baseline cohort and those available at the first 18-month follow-up assessment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Procedures for selecting health variables as candidate deficits were applied to yield 40 deficits. Recoding procedures were applied for categorical, ordinal and interval variables such that they could be mapped to the interval 0–1, where 0 = absence of a deficit, and 1= full expression of the deficit. These individual deficit scores were combined in an index, where 0= no deficit present, and 1= all 40 deficits present. The values of the index were well fit by a gamma distribution. Between the baseline and follow-up cohorts, the age-related slope of deficit accumulation increased from 0.020 (95% confidence interval, 0.014–0.026) to 0.026 (0.020–0.032). The 99% limit to deficit accumulation was 0.6 in the baseline cohort and 0.7 in the follow-up cohort. Multivariate Cox analysis showed the frailty index, age and sex to be significant predictors of mortality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A systematic process for creating a frailty index, which relates deficit accumulation to the individual risk of death, showed reproducible properties in the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study. This method of quantifying frailty can aid our understanding of frailty-related health characteristics in older adults.</p

Prevalence and outcomes of delirium in community and non-acute care settings in people without dementia: a report from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging

BACKGROUND: While delirium is common among older adults in acute care hospitals, its prevalence in other settings has been less well studied. We examined delirium prevalence and outcomes in a large cohort of older Canadians living outside of acute care. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, the prevalence of clinically diagnosed delirium was estimated and five-year survival was compared with that of individuals with dementia of graded severity. RESULTS: Delirium was very uncommon (prevalence <0.5%) and was associated with reduced survival, similar to that of moderate-to-severe dementia. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of older Canadians, delirium in non-demented people was associated with very low 5-year survival, at levels comparable with advanced dementia. Although it is common in hospital, delirium is uncommon among older adults in their usual place of residence, suggesting that it is a potent stimulus to seek medical care

The role of illness acuity on the association between frailty and mortality in emergency department patients referred to internal medicine.

Background: we investigated whether two frailty tools predicted mortality among emergency department (ED) patients referred to internal medicine and how the level of illness acuity influenced any association between frailty and mortality.Methods: two tools, embedded in a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), were the clinical frailty scale (CFS) and a 57-item deficit accumulation frailty index (FI-CGA). Illness acuity was assessed using the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS). We examined all-cause 30-day and 6-month mortality and time to death.Results: in 808 ED patients (mean age ± SD 80.8 ± 8.8, 54.4% female), the mean FI-CGA score was 0.44 ± 0.14, and the CFS was 5.6 ± 1.6. A minority (307; 38%) were classified as having high acuity (CTAS: 1-2). The 30-day mortality rate was 17%; this increased to 34% at 6 months. Compared to well patients with low acuity, the risk of 30-day mortality was 22.5 times (95% CI: 9.35-62.12) higher for severely frail patients with high acuity; 53% of people with very severe frailty (CFS = 8) and high acuity died within 30 days. When acuity was low, the risk for 30-day mortality was significantly higher only among those with very high levels of frailty (CFS 7-9, FI-CGA > 0.5). When acuity was high, even lower levels of frailty (CFS 5-6, FI-CGA 0.4-0.5) were associated with higher 30-day mortality.Conclusions: across levels of frailty, higher acuity increased mortality risk. When acuity was low, the risk was significant only when the degree of frailty was high, whereas when acuity was high, even lower levels of frailty were associated with greater mortality risk

Associations between a laboratory frailty index and adverse health outcomes across age and sex

Objective: Early frailty may be captured by a frailty index (FI) based entirely on vital signs and laboratory tests. Our aim was to examine associations between a laboratory-based FI (FI-Lab) and adverse health outcomes, and investigate how this changed with age. Methods: Up to 8988 individuals aged 20+ years from the 2003-2004 and 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cohorts were included. Characteristics of the FI-Lab were compared to those of a self-reported clinical FI. Associations between each FI and health care use, self-reported health, and disability were examined in the full sample and across age groups. Results: Laboratory-based FI scores increased with age but did not demonstrate expected sex differences. Women aged 20-39 years had higher FI scores than men; this pattern reversed after age 60 years. FI-Lab scores were associated with poor self-reported health (odds ratio[95% confidence interval]: 1.46[1.39-1.54]), high health care use (1.35[1.29-1.42]), and high disability (1.41[1.32-1.50]), even among those aged 20-39 years. Conclusion: Higher FI-Lab scores were associated with poor health outcomes at all ages. Associations in the youngest group support the notion that deficit accumulation occurs across the lifespan. FI-Lab scores could be utilized as an early screening tool to identify deficit accumulation at the cellular and molecular level before they become clinically visible

Incomplete functional recovery after delirium in elderly people: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Delirium often has a poor outcome, but why some people have incomplete recovery is not well understood. Our objective was to identify factors associated with short-term (by discharge) and long-term (by 6 month) incomplete recovery of function following delirium. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study of elderly patients with delirium seen by geriatric medicine services, function was assessed at baseline, at hospital discharge and at six months. RESULTS: Of 77 patients, vital and functional status at 6 months was known for 71, of whom 21 (30%) had died. Incomplete functional recovery, defined as ≥10 point decline in the Barthel Index, compared to pre-morbid status, was present in 27 (54%) of the 50 survivors. Factors associated with death or loss of function at hospital discharge were frailty, absence of agitation (hypoactive delirium), a cardiac cause and poor recognition of delirium by the treating service. Frailty, causes other than medications, and poor recognition of delirium by the treating service were associated with death or poor functional recovery at 6 months. CONCLUSION: Pre-existing frailty, cardiac cause of delirium, and poor early recognition by treating physicians are associated with worse outcomes. Many physicians view the adverse outcomes of delirium as intractable. While in some measure this might be true, more skilled care is a potential remedy within their grasp